 Preview of the 2007 NFL season
by Geoff Rout
American Football Conference
AFC EAST
It is hard to look further than New England to find the divisional winner. Coach Bill Belichick is one of the best around, and he has built a team of the highest quality. The Patriots are sound on both sides of the ball -- only Baltimore allowed less points to be scored against them last year, and while the offense is not generally high-scoring it certainly gets the job done. The New York Jets are probably the next best team in the division, but their chances of finishing ahead of New England in the standings, when all is said and done, are downright poor. Miami and Buffalo have very little probability indeed of winning the division. I think the Patriots have every chance of going 13-3, with the Jets perhaps 11-5 or 10-6 (last year the Patriots were 12-4 and the Jets were 10-6).
AFC NORTH
This might well be the most competitive AFC division in 2007. Baltimore had the second-best regular season at 13-3 last year, tied with Chicago, but with the other three teams in the division all looking likely to improve it may be asking a lot for the Ravens to attain that record again. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh would both seem to be better than 8-8, which was their record last year. The Steelers have a new head coach, and 34-year-old Mike Tomlin may need the season to find his feet, which works in the favor of Baltimore and Cincinnati. The Cleveland Browns are likely to be the weakest team here again, but any of the other three could win the division without any big surprise. I can see Cincinnati improving to 11-5 or perhaps even 12-4, Baltimore perhaps 11-5, and more likely 10-6. Pittsburgh could quite likely be 10-6 or 9-7.
AFC SOUTH
We all know that repeating as Super Bowl champs is a difficult thing to do these days, but Indianapolis look like they may be up to the task. Tony Dungy is a brilliant coach -- being only the sixth coach in history to win 100 games in 10 years or less is testament to that -- and he certainly outcoached everyone else in the playoffs last year, including his former nemesis Belichick. A very powerful offense has been further strengthened in the offseason, and of course the defense answered all the critics in the playoffs and Super Bowl. The Colts were 12-4 last year, and they could get to 13-3 or even 14-2 this time around. Jacksonville may be something like 9-7, while Tennessee could be anywhere in the range from 9-7 to 7-9. Houston still have a lot of catching up to do.
AFC WEST
San Diego dominated this division last year, finishing 14-2 on the year. Both games which were lost were on the road -- to Baltimore and Kansas City -- and both defeats were by a mere three points. The offense is probably about the best in football, certainly in the class of Indianapolis and perhaps even a little better. Even so, Norv Turner comes in as the new head coach to replace Marty Schottenheimer, fired not because of team performance but for some dumb internal moves and a clash of personalities. It should not be forgotten that Turner coached the Redskins for seven years without much success, and it will be very interesting to see whether or not the Chargers maintain the form of last year. Denver are rebuilding, while Kansas City look promising every year but never come through. Oakland are one of the worst teams in football at present. It will be surprising if San Diego do not win the division again, but look for them to finish perhaps 12-4. Denver could be next best at around 9-7 or so.
AFC PLAYOFFS
This is how I see the seedings shaping up after the regular season:
#1 Indianapolis 13-3
#2 New England 13-3
#3 San Diego 12-4
#4 Cincinnati 11-5
#5 NY Jets 11-5
#6 Baltimore 10-6
(Indianapolis with the higher seeding because of a regular season win over New England.)
To extend, this would see Baltimore at San Diego and the Jets at Cincinnati on wildcard weekend; the projected Ravens-Chargers game could be a great one indeed, and right now I would give the edge to San Diego. It is certainly not impossible for the Jets to win in Cincinnati, but if Lewis gets the Bengals as I expect him to they should prevail, This sets up Cincinnati at Indianapolis and San Diego at New England on divisional weekend, and my crystal ball says that New England will play in Indianapolis for the AFC Championship, with the Colts returning to the Super Bowl.
TRUE ODDS
Here is my estimate of the true chances of any one team winning the AFC Championship in 2007:
11-2 Indianapolis, 6-1 New England, 7-1 San Diego, 12-1 Cincinnati, 16-1 Baltimore, Jacksonville, New York Jets, 25-1 Denver, Pittsburgh, 33-1 Kansas City, Tennessee, 50-1 Buffalo, 66-1 Houston, Miami, 100-1 Cleveland and 500-1 Oakland. Compare these figures with online bookies to find the "value" teams, i.e. the teams where the bookies offer better odds than mine. Bear in mind, however, that the better AFC teams are much stronger than the rest of the field, and in all likelihood the AFC champions will almost certainly be one of Indianapolis, New England or San Diego.
National Football Conference
NFC EAST
Philadelphia won the division last year after winning their final five games, then made a quick exit in the playoffs. I see no reason to believe they will make any improvement this year, and in fact I do not believe they will equal the 10-6 record. Dallas is definitely on the improve and that bodes well for new head coach Wade Phillips, who is certainly very capable in his own right. Look for Dallas to finish at about 11-5 or so. The Giants have all kinds of problems, from the coach on down, and they are not going to be a major contender under those circumstances. Washington has no hope of winning this division this year.
NFC NORTH
Last year the Chicago Bears were really the only NFC team capable of competing with the big three from the AFC (the Patriots, the Colts and the Chargers). I look for that trend to continue this season, with perhaps just the Cowboys making enough improvement to challenge the Bears. Rex Grossman received a lot of heat for his up-and-down performance at quarterback last year, but the truth is that Grossman is the typical Bears quarterback -- not the best around, but not bad either, strong and capable of taking hits, both verbally and physically. The Bears were 13-3 last year and could easily attain that mark again; I just cannot see any of the other three teams in this division doing well enough to challenge Chicago or even making the playoffs as a wild card.
NFC SOUTH
The New Orleans Saints were the Cinderella team of the NFL last year, playing much better football than anybody expected (myself included). I suppose if they did it once, they can do it again; however, I just see too much tough competition from Atlanta and Carolina, and particularly from the Panthers. He may be brilliant, but Michael Vick is placing too much responsibility on his own shoulders at Atlanta, and when push comes to shove that will hurt the Falcons. Tampa Bay is still rebuilding, and while they could show a little improvement they will not challenge for divisional honors this year. I think Carolina could improve to 11-5, with Atlanta at about 9-7.
NFC WEST
Seattle has been the best team here for a couple of years now, but their reign may be coming to an end. San Francisco is headed for a breakthrough year, and St. Louis may be ready to improve as well. Arizona, of course, will be the punching bag of the division again, and for the foreseeable future too. It could be a very competitive year out west, and I think the 49ers will prevail at around 10-6, with St. Louis perhaps 9-7 and Seattle at 8-8.
NFC PLAYOFFS
This is how I see the seedings shaping up after the regular season:
#1 Chicago 13-3
#2 Dallas 11-5
#3 Carolina 11-5
#4 San Francisco 10-6
#5 Atlanta 9-7
#6 St. Louis 9-7
In the first round of the playoffs, I believe Carolina will beat St. Louis and San Francisco will edge Atlanta. The next weekend will therefore see the 49ers at the Bears and the Panthers at the Cowboys, and once again I think the two home teams will win, setting up the NFC Championship game as Dallas at Chicago. If this happens, it could be a great game, and I just have a sneaky feeling that the Cowboys will win a close one and get to the Super Bowl.
TRUE ODDS
Here is my estimate of the true chances of any one team winning the NFC Championship in 2007:
7-2 Chicago, 4-1 Dallas, 6-1 Carolina, 10-1 San Francisco, 14-1 Atlanta, Seattle, 20-1 Philadelphia, St. Louis, 33-1 New Orleans, New York Giants, 50-1 Green Bay, Minnesota, 100-1 Detroit, 300-1 Arizona, Tampa Bay, Washington. Compare these figures with online bookies to find the "value" teams, i.e. the teams where the bookies offer better odds than mine.
SUPER BOWL XLII
The big game will be in Glendale, Arizona on February 3. There are three serious NFC contenders in Chicago, Dallas and Carolina, while the AFC will most likely be represented by either Indianapolis, San Diego or New England. It is certainly possible that we could see a repeat of last season's Bears--Colts affair, but I think it may be the Colts against the Cowboys. In any event, whoever represents the NFC is up against it, and will need to make considerable improvement to challenge whichever of the AFC big three that they face.
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