 NFL Playoffs 2006-07
by Geoff Rout
TEAM RECAPS:
Baltimore -- Were only beaten three times in the regular season, and were one of only two teams to notch a win over San Diego. The defense is head and shoulders better than any other unit in the NFL, allowing only 12.5 points per game, recording 60 sacks and being best in the league at preventing opponents from converting third downs -- the Ravens figure for that was 28%, so more than 7 of every 10 attempts against them failed. The run defense gave up 1,214 yards for the year, second only to Minnesota, while the pass defense was in sixth place at 3,011 yards. The highest point total given up for the year was 26 to Tennessee, and Baltimore won that game 27-26. Opponents scored 20 or more points against Baltimore only four times, and in the final seven games of the season nobody scored more than 17 points on them. Unlike 2000, when the defense was the primary reason they won the Super Bowl, this time around the excellent defense has a very good offense to support it. Steve McNair is a very able quarterback who seldom makes poor decisions and is a great leader, too. Jamal Lewis is still the workhorse running back; he gained better than 1,100 yards this year and scored nine touchdowns. Mark Clayton is the leading receiver with 67 catches and 939 yards, but Todd Heap and Derrick Mason are thrown to just as often and rack up almost as many yards. Baltimore come into the playoffs with four straight wins and a lot of confidence. The average win margin for the year was 9.5 points and opponents that played Baltimore this year recorded 118 wins between them.
Chicago -- Finished the season 13-3, which is not too shabby any way you look at it, but still there are questions about the Bears that will soon begin to be answered. Quarterback Rex Grossman was much maligned in mid-season, then got it together some before imploding in the final game against Green Bay; he had 12 pass attempts, completed only two of them, and threw three interceptions before being 'rested'. For the season, Grossman threw 23 touchdowns and 20 interceptions, and he certainly does appear to be a weak link. Running back Thomas Jones did have a good season, racking up a total of 1,210 yards on the ground, while the two main receivers -- Muhsin Muhammad and Bernard Berrian -- caught 111 passes between them. The defense gave up a shade under 16 points a game, third best in the league, and the unit was pretty good at preventing opponents from converting third downs. The rush defense is quite good, and the pass defense is average. When the Bears are functioning well, they are potent; they scored more than 40 points on three occasions, and in seven games they notched up more than 30. When they are bad, though, they are really bad; they were extremely lucky to escape with a 24-23 win in Arizona, and a couple of weeks later were mauled 13-31 at home to Miami. Near the end of the year they needed overtime to beat the Bucs 34-31. The season end was poor, in fact; after the Bucs game they struggled to beat Detroit and were then outplayed by Green Bay in the last game. The average win margin for the year was 10.8 points and opponents that played Chicago this year recorded 110 wins between them.
Dallas -- The wheels have come off big-time in big-D. They were heading their division and cruising along until New Orleans came into town and demolished them 42-17. They beat Atlanta on the road the next week, but then lost their final two games, both at home. The Eagles outplayed them 23-7, and in the last week of the season lowly Detroit upset them 39-31. The big problem is the defense, which gave up more touchdowns in the final four games than they had in the first twelve. The pass-rush has been non-existent in recent weeks and really, the Cowboys should not be a major factor in these playoffs. Having said that, it is possible that Dallas could win in Seattle in round one, because the Seahawks are not playing well either. Tony Romo became the starting quarterback about a third of the way through the season, and although he has played well he still lacks experience. The ongoing T.O. saga has to be a distraction to the team and it sure seems like something has to give soon. The average win margin for the year was 4.7 points and opponents that played Dallas this year recorded 117 wins between them.
Giants -- 'Big Blue' went 2-6 in the second half of the season and they are the lowest rated of the twelve playoff teams, although it should be pointed out that the Giants had the toughest schedule of all 12 playoff teams. It seems that the running game is the only thing working for them right now; Tiki Barber carried the ball 327 times for 1,662 yards and five touchdowns; he also caught 58 passes for another 465 yards. Quarterback Eli Manning, the younger brother of Indianapolis star Peyton, did not have a real good season, as the figures of 24 touchdowns and 18 interceptions reflect. There is definitely something wrong in the chemistry between Eli and the coaching staff, and something has to change next year. Tight end Jeremy Shockey is an important part of the offense, and now he is gone for the rest of the season with injury. The only other receiver who has been consistently catching passes is Plaxico Burress, and his dedication is questionable, to say the least. The defensive unit is not playing very well either, and all that points to a quick exit from the playoffs. The average win margin for the year was -0.4 points and opponents that played the Giants this year recorded 133 wins between them.
Indianapolis -- The Colts have one of the most potent offenses in football (and arguably the best quarterback, Peyton Manning); just as the offense is good, however, the defense has been terrible. Opponents racked up 2,768 rushing yards against them, an average of 173 yards per game, and of course chewed up the clock and set up the passing game in the process. It is a testament to the skill of Manning and the rest of the offense that the Colts only lost four games. It should be remembered, before throwing the Colts out of your calculations, that Indianapolis were 4-1 against playoff teams this year; probably the best game was a 27-20 win over New England in Foxboro. If the Colts get out to a 10 or 14 point lead early in the game, they are very difficult indeed to beat, but that is a dangerous way to approach the playoffs. Manning does not get sacked too often; of these playoff teams, the 15 sacks allowed is better than anybody else. In addition, the Colts have not one but two receivers who racked up over 1,300 yards each this season -- Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne, who also scored a combined total of 21 touchdowns. Rookie Joseph Addai had over 1,000 yards on the ground and scored eight touchdowns. The history of the Super Bowl demonstrates clearly that a good, aggressive defense is a requirement, and unless the Colts can become more consistent in that area -- tough to do in a hurry and at this time of year -- they and Manning are doomed to be thwarted again. The average win margin for the year was 4.2 points and opponents that played Indianapolis this year recorded 128 wins between them.
Jets -- The Jets were 4-12 in 2005, and like the Saints were not expected to reach the playoffs this year. Rookie coach Eric Mangini has injected new life into the team and they finished 10-6 this time around, certainly a huge improvement. It is hard to point to any particular stars; quarterback Chad Pennington had 17 touchdowns and 16 interceptions, which is hardly earth-moving. Receiver Laveranues Coles did have a good year with 91 catches for 1,098 yards; Jerricho Cotchery was not far behind with 82 catches for 961 yards. The Jets scored fewer points than any of the other 12 playoff teams, and overall the offense is mediocre at best. The defense is hardly any better, but somehow the Jets have fought their way into the picture. It will require a top class effort by the whole team and coaching staff to get any deeper, though. The average win margin for the year was 1.3 points and opponents that played the Jets this year recorded 120 wins between them.
Kansas City -- The Chiefs are one of only two teams to have beaten San Diego this year, but other than that things have not gone wonderfully well for them. The defense is struggling, and although their rushing game is good, the offense as a whole is not firing on all cylinders. Running back Larry Johnson was second in the NFL with 1,789 yards on the ground this year, also scoring 17 touchdowns. While he is healthy, the Chiefs offense always has a chance, but if he gets shut down Kansas are in trouble. The Chiefs are the weakest of the AFC contenders, and only two NFC teams have a worse rating. They may win a game but they won't be in the Super Bowl. The average win margin for the year was 1.0 points and opponents that played Kansas this year recorded 125 wins between them.
New England -- The Patriots were 12-4 in a division that is arguably the strongest in the NFL; the Jets are in the playoffs too, while both Buffalo and Miami show signs of improving. The defense gave up 237 points on the season, and only Baltimore did better than that. The rush defense is one of the best in the league, and the pass defense is capable while not being spectacular. Quarterback Tom Brady is one of the best around and he has the experience which is lacking in his position on many other playoff teams this year. Brady knows how to win games and he knows how to communicate with his coaching staff; he works hard and is an excellent leader. Through a friend, I also know that Brady firmly believes that New England is going to win it all this year. That is significant -- he does not say that publicly, but he is telling family and friends that they are winning the championship. The Patriots have a double threat at running back, with Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney both being very good at what they do. The two main receivers are Reche Caldwell and Benjamin Watson; between them they caught 110 passes and racked up just over 1,400 yards. You could feel the intensity level rising in Foxboro as New England approached the end of the regular season, and that was demonstrated by the fact that they scored 40 points twice in the final three games. This may be the best-coached team in the league, and the coaches and quarterback have been together for a while, getting the job done too. The average win margin for the year was 9.3 points and opponents that played New England this year recorded 127 wins between them.
New Orleans -- It must be said that when this season started nobody expected the Saints to make the playoffs this year, let alone win their division. In 2005, a season marred by a hurricane which forced all home games to be switched to alternative stadiums outside of New Orleans, the Saints were just 3-13. The turnaround began in mid-January when Sean Payton, assistant coach at the Cowboys under Bill Parcells, was appointed as the head coach. Payton, a very good offensive coach, signed quarterback Drew Brees from San Diego, drafted running back Reggie Bush from Southern California, and set about rebuilding the team. Brees has proved a worthy acquisition, throwing for well over 4,000 yards this year; in only one game, against Washington, did he fail to throw a touchdown pass, while in four games he threw for three or more (he got five in one game against Dallas). Bush has seen his duties split between running and receiving, and he gained a total of 1,307 yards in those positions; he also scored nine touchdowns. Deuce McAllister is the workhorse running back, with more than 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns to his credit for the year. The Saints have a very good pass defense, so opponents have been running the ball against them, which makes the defense more than a little vulnerable overall -- you know the old adage about the running game setting up deep passes. One concern is that the Saints are -4 on takeaways; of the twelve teams that made the playoffs, only Seattle have a worse number. Unless the defense can be turned around some, it is unlikely that the Saints will progress deep into the post-season. The average win margin for the year was 5.7 points and opponents that played New Orleans this year recorded 118 wins between them.
Philadelphia -- In mid-November it appeared that the Eagles season was over; starting quarterback McNabb had an injury which put him on IR, Philadelphia were not playing very well and they were two games behind Dallas and the Giants. In came veteran Jeff Garcia to replace McNabb, and the Eagles took off. They won three straight divisional games on the road, and by kickoff against Atlanta in week 17 they knew they had tied up the division. They do have some problems to overcome, however. Of all the playoff teams, they are the worst at controlling time of possession, and that could come back to haunt them. Only the Colts allow more rushing yards against them, and as that team knows, the rush defense can really cause problems. On the other hand, the offense is working well; Garcia has thrown 10 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions, and of course running back Brian Westbrook sets up a lot with his consistently good rushing, and he is very dangerous too, with over 1,200 yards on the ground, another 699 through the air and a total of 11 touchdowns. Garcia likes to spread the ball around when passing, so if the running game fires the offense becomes very potent. Kicker David Akers did not miss a field goal under 40 yards this year and he was 6 of 8 between 40 and 49 yards. The Eagles come into the playoffs after five straight wins, and they do have a lot going for them. The average win margin for the year was 4.4 points and opponents that played Philadelphia this year recorded 122 wins between them.
San Diego -- Finished the regular season with a 14-2 record, the best in the NFL. They probably have the best offense in football right now. Running back LaDainian Tomlinson led the league with 1,815 rushing yards and 28 touchdowns; he also caught 56 passes and scored three more touchdowns that way. Wide receiver Antonio Gates caught 71 passes for 924 yards and nine touchdowns. Quarterback Philip Rivers has had a good season with 22 touchdown passes and just nine interceptions; collectively the team scored 492 points, an average of nearly 31 per game and 65 points better than the second-placed team. With 2,578 yards as a team, the Chargers were second only to Atlanta in rushing yards. The defense is certainly very capable too; it is led by linebacker Shawne Merriman, who missed four games through suspension yet still led the league with 17 sacks. As a unit, the San Diego defense led the league with 61 sacks and was also one of the least penalized defensive units. The rush defense finished in the top ten, and overall the defense was number six. San Diego has won 10 straight games, better than anyone else. The average win margin for the year was 11.8 points and opponents that played San Diego this year recorded 117 wins between them.
Seattle -- Played in the Super Bowl last year, but have been only a shadow of that team this time around. They are -8 on takeaways, by far the worst number of the 12 playoff teams, and they struggle to convert on third down. The 49 sacks they have allowed is also worst of all the playoff teams. They have a decent running game and an average passing game, which is fine if you have a good defense, which they do not. They struggle against the run and their pass defense leaves a lot to be desired too. They ended the regular season by losing three of their last four games, winning only at Tampa Bay. A first round win over Dallas is possible, but after that they are not going anywhere. The average win margin for the year was -0.4 points and opponents that played Seattle this year recorded 116 wins between them.
RESULTS TO DATE:
Wild Card Weekend:
Kansas City Chiefs 8, Indianapolis Colts 23
Dallas Cowboys 20, Seattle Seahawks 21
New York Jets 16, New England Patriots 37
New York Giants 20, Philadelphia Eagles 23
Divisional Weekend:
Indianapolis Colts 15, Baltimore Ravens 6
Philadelphia Eagles 24, New Orleans Saints 27
Seattle Seahawks 24, Chicago Bears 27 (in O.T.)
New England Patriots 24, San Diego Chargers 21
Championship Weekend:
New Orleans Saints 14, Chicago Bears 39
New England Patriots 34, Indianapolis Colts 38
Super Bowl XLI:
Chicago Bears 17, Indianapolis Colts 29
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